Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc. reports earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

OVERVIEW: Millennium announced early in the quarter that it would cut 14 percent of its staff to increase its focus on Velcade, the company's only commercial drug. The move leaves the company with about 1,000 employees. The company conceded to Genzyme in a bidding war over AnorMed Inc. Both companies had been one-upping the other to buy the Canadian company and obtain its lead drug candidate, Mozobil, a stem-cell transplant treatment in late-stage studies.

As a result of pulling out of the deal, AnorMed gave the Millennium a $19.5 million termination fee.

BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect fourth-quarter profit of 7 cents per share on revenue of $134.4 million. For the full year, analysts expect profit of 11 cents per share, excluding stock option expenses, on revenue of $481 million.

Millennium expects a full-year profit of between $10 million and $20 million, excluding charges, or a loss between $50 million and $60 million including charges.

ANALYST TAKE: Analysts don't expect any surprises in the company's fourth-quarter results, after Millennium announced full-year Velcade sales of $220 million.

Merrill Lynch analyst Tom McGahren expects the company's fourth-quarter profit to fall just shy of Wall Street expectations, coming in at 6 cents per share. More concerning, he wrote in a note to investors, is the 2007 outlook and updates on clinical trials for Velcade in front-line multiple myeloma and other forms of cancer.

Piper Jaffray analyst Rachel McMinn, looking toward 2007, said she doesn't expect Velcade sales to outperform the company's guidance of between $240 million and $260 million and has set 2007 sales expectations at $233 million.

"We continue to view 2007 as a challenging year for significant Velcade growth," she said, citing several factors.

Those factors include competition from Celgene Corp.'s Revlimid and limited potential for Velcade in its recently approved mantle cell lymphoma indication.

WHAT'S AHEAD: While Velcade is undergoing studies for several other indications, the company has a small mix of drug candidates in its clinical pipeline. Those include one drug candidate being tested in midstage trials for multiple sclerosis and atherosclerosis and another in midstage trials for rheumatoid arthritis.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: Shares of Millennium gained 10.1 percent over the quarter after opening Oct. 2 at $9.90 and closing Dec. 29 at $10.90 on the Nasdaq. The stock hit a 52-week high of $12.08 on Nov. 8.


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